Fellow Nigerians, let me start by sending you my warmest compliments of this special season. It has been one hell of a year for our beloved country and most of us in general. The tempo of politics has nearly reached a crescendo as we meander our way towards the year 2014. Next year promises to be an interesting one already as those masquerades seeking political offices or simply waiting to renew their tenure must unmask eventually.
There
would be no hiding place for the goldfish by this time next year...
I
have therefore chosen to move beyond the letter writers and their satanic
epistles. If they like, they can continue to strip themselves naked in the
market place. The chicanery that brought them together is what will scatter
them ultimately. A house built with spittle would easily collapse at the fall
of the dew.
Truth
is, none of the letters truthfully addressed the issues of development. They were
letters reeking with personal animosity and rabid vendetta. The common motive
was simple and easy to decipher: who controls power and our commonwealth from2015, after the elections? No more, no less.>>>>
Let’s
therefore work out the calculations as to what to expect ahead of time as
events continue to unravel. By popular demand, I wish to go ahead and give a
sneak preview of the melodrama long before it premieres. The actors are not new
to the play. The dramatis personae won’t be many as some of them are going to
be cast in dual or multiple roles. The plot would be laden with twists and
turns of intriguing dimensions. There will be use of deliberate distortions in
order to camouflage the real intentions. Multifaceted actors in the troupe will
appear at brief intervals and disappear in a jiffy just the way they came. This
is the stuff of thrillers.
Let
the play begin. The protagonist remains the President and Commander-in-Chief of
the Armed Forces of Nigeria, Dr Goodluck Ebele Jonathan. One of his hidden names,
Azikiwe, would soon be re-introduced as a stage-name. It is needed to mesmerise
some emotional spectators who live majorly on raw sentiment. His arrival will
be heralded by a grand ceremony to be orchestrated by a mass choir and chorus
singers who have been rehearsing for years. Many reasons, real, surreal and
unreal, would be adduced for the second coming of a man who has ostensibly come
to save Nigeria from its enemies in their imagination. It would be said that
the Messiah, yes, our Lord and Saviour, needs more time to complete his
miracles. The supposed blasphemy would be concocted and regurgitated by the
biggest men and women of God as we have seen before. They will call the name of
God in vain and prophesies would come flying in from every direction in
staccato fashion.
The
lead actor would have to make a grandiloquent appearance and a flowery speech
to thank his good people who are begging him to stay on in power. He would
invite his fellow party men and women to join hands with him and follow him to
the Jerusalem of our dream. He would have to offer an olive branch and attempt
the Mandela style of reconciliation. This may include bringing on stage a new
National Chairman to placate embittered party members. He may also ask his
assailants to cool temper by dropping his current Vice President, a perfect
gentleman, for someone from the other side. That person may turn out to be
Alhaji Sule Lamido, the embattled Governor of Jigawa State. Nothing is ever too
strange or stupidly bizarre in this macabre dance. The name of
Brigadier-General Mohammed Buba Marwa has also been touted for his nationwide
popularity and achievement as Military Governor of Lagos State.
But
the lead actor may decide to shock the audience by announcing a sudden
retirement from acting. This is most unlikely and may be far-fetched. But those
who should know are willing to place a bet on it. If it ever happens, new
actors are likely to come on stage. The business mogul, Alhaji Aliko Dangote
may be the joker in the pack. It is the ultimate ace to be unleashed against
the enemy camp if it becomes obvious that the opposition is gaining the upper
hand. Dangote may be paired with the Akwa Ibom Governor, Dr Godswill Akpabio, a
consummate politician and close confidant of the incumbent. The dreamers of
this ingenious package are hoping to neutralise the likes of Alhaji Rabiu
Kwankwanso, Governor of Kano, the State with the largest population in Nigeria.
Akpabio is believed to have the requisite charisma, track record of
performance, coupled with humongous access to oil wealth to give Dangote a
major boost.
There
is a Team B hanging around. Those who play the religious card want Jonathan to
support the Senate President, Senator David Alechenu Bonaventure Mark, a
Catholic and retired Army General since it is certain opposition will pick a
Muslim Northerner as its candidate. He has been the stabilising factor for the
Jonathan administration to date with an intimidating profile and presumed
acceptance within military circles. It is believed that a Mark candidacy would
weaken the romance of Generals Ibrahim Babangida, Abdulsalami Abubakar and even
Olusegun Obasanjo with the opposition since they can trust him more to protect
their interests. “He would be an easier man to deal with than the likes of
Buhari, Tinubu, and others”, said an impeccable source. The second reason in
his favour is how to neutralise the rising profile of The Speaker of the House
of Representatives, Alhaji Aminu Waziri Tambuwal, who is being touted as the
assumed flag-bearer of the opposition.
David
Mark is believed to command nationwide respect and reportedly has unfettered
access to the individual with the biggest cash-cow in Africa, Dr Michael
Adenuga Jnr. Adenuga is seen as a silent power house who is capable monumental
possibilities. The plotters of this strategy believe it can fly. Their
calculation is predicated on picking the Vice President from the South West
since it is obvious the opposition is not likely to pick theirs from there.
They believe they can persuade Alhaji Tajudeen Afolabi Adeola to cross over to
PDP. Fola Adeola, former Managing Director of Guaranty Trust Bank comes with
impeccable pedigree and superlative credentials. He’s one of the most respected
New Age Muslims in Nigeria. He comes from Ogun State, the traditional homestead
of some of the renowned and greatest leaders and legends of Nigeria, Olusegun
Obasanjo, Ernest Shonekan, Obafemi Awolowo, Moshood Abiola, Wole Soyinka,
Funmilayo Ransome-Kuti, Fela Anikulapo-Kuti, Adeoye Lambo, Bola Ajibola, and
others. Adeola would merely be following in their footsteps.
There
is a third option. No one can totally ignore former Vice President, Alhaji
Atiku Abubakar, in political considerations. While he appears to be floating at
the moment, it is believed that Abubakar has a stupendous war chess at his
command. He still controls a chunky arm of the Shehu Musa Yar’Adua political
structure which he can use for himself or donate to others. PDP may decide to
use him as a sword of Damocles against his estranged boss, General Olusegun
Obasanjo.
According
to my sources, it is not in the interest of Jonathan to risk being disgraced
out of power by an obvious gang-up. “If I were Jonathan, I will throw all my
resources behind a good candidate in order to frustrate the opposition. By
voluntarily giving up power, Jonathan would have eclipsed Obasanjo’s claim to
fame. He has nothing more to prove other than to ensure a less rancorous transition”,
said one of the brains behind this incredible plan.
The
reason behind this entire plot is how to upstage an audacious opposition that
seems poised and determined to dislodge the ruling party. On its part, the
opposition is moving at frenetic pace to overwhelm the PDP. The APC is imbued
with renewed confidence based on its ability to build a broad coalition of
different political parties. If things go according to plans, they intend to
take over the leadership of the National Assembly shortly. They appear very
serious about this tall ambition now that they have virtually succeeded in
controlling the lower chamber, the House of Representatives. They are plotting
the final offensive at the Senate where they hope to be in the majority in the
near future.
If
they succeed, the position of Senate President would become tenuous and shaky.
This is going to be a battle royale as those loyal to President Jonathan have
promised a fight-to-finish when the time comes. They would have to fight dirty
as this is going to practically halt in its tracks the ambitions of the current
Senate President, David Mark. The President’s team is trying to label these
wholesale defections as carpet – crossing in a bid to use a constitutional
sledgehammer to stem the tide and unseat the legislators abandoning the ruling
party like rats from a sinking ship.
No
matter what happens, the opposition ticket is visibly dangling between Aminu
Tambuwal and Rabiu Kwankwanso. The only problem they must confront is the
undying ambition of General Muhammadu Buhari. Neither of the younger aspirants
can go far without the endorsement of the strongman. And they know it. It is a
subject APC members discuss only in hushed tones. The Buhari factor is so
volatile that some members are hoping for a miracle that would make it possible
for Buhari to withdraw voluntarily from the race. “I will be certain we can win
the day Buhari throws his weight behind our leading candidate-in-waiting who
for now is Tambuwal”, said a source in APC.
But
the Buhari brouhaha is not going to go away that easily. The former Head of
State and his die-hard supporters believe he is the only one who can defeat
Jonathan or any other PDP candidate in 2015. “It is Buhari or no one else,
otherwise let Jonathan continue”, one of his closest allies told me last week
in Lagos. I was momentarily dazed by this submission from a seasoned politician
from the North. But the man stuck to his guns that APC does not have any other
candidate with the status of Buhari that is capable of confronting a sit-in
President.
But
others within APC are of the opinion that Buhari cannot force his candidacy on
the party. According to this school of thought, Buhari’s candidacy is only
being pushed by those who think they stand to gain a lot if he becomes President.
“Buhari himself is man enough to know that it would be practically impossible
to do better than he did in his previous attempts. He has demonstrated a
resolve to join hands with others to dislodge PDP and this is highly
commendable”, said the source.
Those
angling for younger candidates believe either Tambuwal or Kwankwanso can get
the job done. They think Tambuwal has the better chance because he’s been able
to build bridges nationwide unlike Kwankwanso whose influence is more in the
North. The dream is for all these politicians to queue behind whoever is chosen
without any rancour. They have also zeroed in on two possible running mates.
They are Governors Babatunde Raji Fashola of Lagos State and Chibuike Rotimi
Amaechi of Rivers State. Fashola is loved because of his steady achievements in
Lagos. He’s a modern administrator with a powerful vision the type Nigeria
needs to attain progress at this time and age.
The
odds against Fashola are that he is a Muslim like Tambuwal or Kwankwanso. And
religion is likely to play a major role in the 2015 presidential election. The
favoured candidate for deputy, Amaechi, is from the same geo-political zone as
President Jonathan. He is also a devout Catholic like David Mark. Like Fashola,
he’s regarded as one of the best achievers in Nigeria today. His supporters
believe he deserves the ticket because of his principled and courageous stance
against Jonathan. “Without Amaechi, the opposition won’t be as formidable as it
has become today. And if we want to take the number one position from the South
South, it is only fair that we compensate the region with number two”, said an
APC stalwart.
So
far so good, both sides are busy with their secret permutations and cranking up
their credentials. What is not known is if they would give peace a chance.
However,
the nation is anxiously awaiting details of what the contending forces have to
offer the hapless population. For the long-suffering people of Nigeria this is
really the crux of the matter. The questions being asked are “Will they come
out with the same worn-out platitudes, promises and jejune manifestoes that
lack clear principles and ideologies or will we for once have clear-headed
policies and plans?”
There
are many questions begging for answers. They will determine whether our people
will be apathetic or truly contribute to the election and not selection of
their leaders.
It
is hoped the warring groups will clearly demonstrate how they intend to save us
as a nation or conversely display how they intend to tie us once again to the
stakes and pull the noose.
It
is a matter of time.
Written
By Dele Momodu
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